FREE Chart of the Day Ichimoku, Candlestick and Fibonacci analysis for September 21st 2017
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The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo 一目均衡表 or 'equilibrium at a glance' chart highlights higher probability trades in Securities markets. It is relatively new to Western Technical Analysis, but it's popularity has been increasing amongst financial markets traders.
Ichimoku charts applies a series of indicators on one chart, allowing traders to assess price action in three time frames - long, medium and short. This style of analysis enables the trader to see the 'whole' picture for any particular security.
A basic understanding of the components that make up the Ichimoku chart is essential to effectively applying this trading method. The method was developed in the 1920's and released to the public in 1968 by Tokyo financial journalist, Goichi Hosoda. It is believed that he employed more than 10,000 university students to backtest the indicators which came to make up the Ichimoku trading method.
Ichimoku charts is commonly used by many Japanese trading rooms because it offers multiple assessments of price action in many time frames and suggests trades with higher or lower probability for success. Traders new to the method may be confused by the 'busy looking' Ichimoku charts but a basic understanding of the indicators reveals a method which is quite simple in it's application.
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I've enjoyed your videos very much. I'm curious as to what you use to set your levels. Fibs? Previous swing high/lows? Fractals? I'm a relatively new trader and see how accurate your levels are and would like to emulate.
Thanks in advance,
Response from Ichimoku.Co:
Thank you for your feedback.
My primary method for setting SandR levels is swing highs and lows.
I also use Fib levels separately for retracements and expansions but use them in a very disciplined manner where I relate first time frame swings to first time frame swings, comparing like to like.
An important change of character may have occurred over the last few days in Bitcoin.
Since July this year, we haven't seen any sustained activity down below the Kijun Sen indicator until now. Up until two weeks ago, probes below the Tenkan Sen were rejected quite quickly to the upside with solid buying coming in. The last break out below the TS was met with failure in the immediate reaction by buyers in the bullish white bodied candle. It was a good attempt but the sellers returned quite strongly to test to the KS which hadn't seen sellers trade through there since late July. Four days ago we saw the important close of price action below the KS and the noted change of character, where the sellers were previously losing commitment below the KS, now the buyers have been losing commitment.
It suggests that a long overdue correction may be probable.
We should be looking to support at the previous major swing low around 3600 and with it being just inside the top of the Kumo (the cloud), it looks like it may be an area where we could see a pause in the 1st time frame down trend.
Looking at the hourly chart, the BBs are very wide, suggesting that we may have seen the low put in for the day and we could see a retracement back up to 4065 or possibly up to a large zone for previous support from 4120 to the mean at 4176.
Looking at the daily bands, we also see the important change of character in this market.
Where the buyers were previously trading with a strong bullish tone above the upper band and in the upper half of the bands, constantly finding significant support at or just through the middle, now, we shave seen over the last few days trading in the lower half with weak indecisive trading below the lower band. It suggests that the buyers certainly have lost the strength which saw it test the round number 5000 and with some solid bearish closes below the bands could see the above sell off come to fruition.
The weekly chart certainly does support the idea of a much-needed retracement and mean reversion but we do need to watch upper band support at 3872. A bearish close though this level at the end of the week could eventually see the round number 3000 eventually tested, whilst still maintaining a healthy higher time frame up trend.
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Today we saw a confirmed change of trend to the upside in the AUD/USD with a higher high and higher low. But the change of trend has occurred on a Spinning Top type of candle which tends to denote indecision in a market. That is mainly due to the contraction in the size of the body of the candle. The size of the body denotes net momentum between the open and close for the period and in this case it suggests that net momentum is not as great as it was previously. This does raise some doubt about the ability of the buyers to continue pushing the trend higher.
Now, having said that, we don't see any strength from the sellers. The colour of the body remains white, so, net momentum remains up, albeit small and the buyers have still managed to maintain a moderate amount of control by closing between the high and mid-range.
Over the last two days, we have seen probes below the Kijun Sen indicator, which has held as support, with the sellers losing commitment below there. We should continue to use it as our benchmark, at 0.79259, at the moment and a negative close below there could spell the end of this medium term bullishness we've seen over the last 4 days, when the AUD/USD bounced off the 0.78 level.
If the buyers can manage to remain keen, there is a possibility of a move to the internal major Andrews Pitchfork line, which is very close to the round number 0.80. This is a level where we have seen the buyers lose commitment in recent times as evidenced by the large shadows in late July. So, an eventual bullish close above there could see the AUD/USD eventually move to significantly higher levels.
We've seen selling today in the AUD/USD, with the sellers taking back control on a black bodied candle. Buyers were strong enough to extend the trend further to the upside but lost control and commitment by the end of the trading day to end very close to the lower 1StD Bollinger Band. The inability of the buyers to close within the upper half of the bands suggests that the sellers are perhaps still the stronger party in this market at the moment in a longer time frame.
Price action was also rejected from the minor-scale Andrews Pitchfork resistance at the first and second upper warning lines.
At the moment, in the new trading session, we are seeing perhaps a new 1st time frame down trend form with a lower high and lower low but support is coming in at the lower band at 0.78750.
The bands are looking fairly squeezed at the moment, representing a low volatility situation. We know that volatility is cyclical and will be aware that volatility may come into the market as a new trending move. We should be on the lookout for a bearish close below the lower band if the 2nd time frame down trend is going to resume in a similar strong bearish tone as two or three days ago.
Also be on the lookout for solid support at the upper Pitchfork line (green line) at approximately 0.78560.
Following an extreme trading day with the market testing to the 3rd PP level, we don't tend to see strong follow through the next day.
We are likely to see the market either pull back or go sideways for a day, with the buyers likely to resume in a day or two.
If we do see any upside, it probably won't be of the magnitude of the extreme day.
The 1StD Bollinger Bands are looking a little wide, suggesting that the AUD/USD is a little overbought and a mean reversion wouldn't surprise.
Looking to support on any retracement at the upper band initially, at 0.7914, the middle PP level at 0.7850 or the mean (middle of the bands) at 0.7881.
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