Today we saw a confirmed change of trend to the upside in the AUD/USD with a higher high and higher low. But the change of trend has occurred on a Spinning Top type of candle which tends to denote indecision in a market. That is mainly due to the contraction in the size of the body of the candle. The size of the body denotes net momentum between the open and close for the period and in this case it suggests that net momentum is not as great as it was previously. This does raise some doubt about the ability of the buyers to continue pushing the trend higher.
Now, having said that, we don't see any strength from the sellers. The colour of the body remains white, so, net momentum remains up, albeit small and the buyers have still managed to maintain a moderate amount of control by closing between the high and mid-range.
Over the last two days, we have seen probes below the Kijun Sen indicator, which has held as support, with the sellers losing commitment below there. We should continue to use it as our benchmark, at 0.79259, at the moment and a negative close below there could spell the end of this medium term bullishness we've seen over the last 4 days, when the AUD/USD bounced off the 0.78 level.
If the buyers can manage to remain keen, there is a possibility of a move to the internal major Andrews Pitchfork line, which is very close to the round number 0.80. This is a level where we have seen the buyers lose commitment in recent times as evidenced by the large shadows in late July. So, an eventual bullish close above there could see the AUD/USD eventually move to significantly higher levels.
Following an extreme trading day with the market testing to the 3rd PP level, we don't tend to see strong follow through the next day.
We are likely to see the market either pull back or go sideways for a day, with the buyers likely to resume in a day or two.
If we do see any upside, it probably won't be of the magnitude of the extreme day.
The 1StD Bollinger Bands are looking a little wide, suggesting that the AUD/USD is a little overbought and a mean reversion wouldn't surprise.
Looking to support on any retracement at the upper band initially, at 0.7914, the middle PP level at 0.7850 or the mean (middle of the bands) at 0.7881.
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