FX Trading: A Guide to Trading Foreign Exchange by Douglas, Lovrencic & Pontikis

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Selling Today in the AUD/USD

We've seen selling today in the AUD/USD, with the sellers taking back control on a black bodied candle. Buyers were strong enough to extend the trend further to the upside but lost control and commitment by the end of the trading day to end very close to the lower 1StD Bollinger Band. The inability of the buyers to close within the upper half of the bands suggests that the sellers are perhaps still the stronger party in this market at the moment in a longer time frame.

Price action was also rejected from the minor-scale Andrews Pitchfork resistance at the first and second upper warning lines.

At the moment, in the new trading session, we are seeing perhaps a new 1st time frame down trend form with a lower high and lower low but support is coming in at the lower band at 0.78750.

The bands are looking fairly squeezed at the moment, representing a low volatility situation. We know that volatility is cyclical and will be aware that volatility may come into the market as a new trending move. We should be on the lookout for a bearish close below the lower band if the 2nd time frame down trend is going to resume in a similar strong bearish tone as two or three days ago.

Also be on the lookout for solid support at the upper Pitchfork line (green line) at approximately 0.78560.

Minor pullback to support for slightly overdone AUD/USD?

Following an extreme trading day with the market testing to the 3rd PP level, we don't tend to see strong follow through the next day.
We are likely to see the market either pull back or go sideways for a day, with the buyers likely to resume in a day or two.
If we do see any upside, it probably won't be of the magnitude of the extreme day.
The 1StD Bollinger Bands are looking a little wide, suggesting that the AUD/USD is a little overbought and a mean reversion wouldn't surprise.
Looking to support on any retracement at the upper band initially, at 0.7914, the middle PP level at 0.7850 or the mean (middle of the bands) at 0.7881.

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FX Trading: A Guide to Trading Foreign Exchange